Uncertainty Quantification of Ocean Parameterizations: Application to the K-Profile-Parameterization for Penetrative Convection

(Souza, A. N. and Wagner, G. L. and Ramadhan, A. and Allen, B. and Churavy, V. and Schloss, J. and Campin, J. and Hill, C. and Edelman, A. and Marshall, J. and Flierl, G. and Ferrari, R.), Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, vol. 12, no. 12, 2020.


Parameterizations of unresolved turbulent processes often compromise the fidelity of large-scale ocean models. In this work, we argue for a Bayesian approach to the refinement and evaluation of turbulence parameterizations. Using an ensemble of large eddy simulations of turbulent penetrative convection in the surface boundary layer, we demonstrate the method by estimating the uncertainty of parameters in the convective limit of the popular “K-Profile Parameterization.” We uncover structural deficiencies and propose an alternative scaling that overcomes them.

doi = 10.1029/2020MS002108

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